Golden State Valkyries Expansion Draft Speculation Series: Seattle Storm

After a difficult season, the Seattle Storm entered the offseason planning for a quick turnaround and they accomplished it by clearing the salary cap space to bring in two more stars.  Their new look lineup made it back to the playoffs, but the team still seems a little short of the championship contender that they were hoping to build.  The unusual composition of their roster has a major impact on the Valkyries for this Expansion Draft and they are likely to end up with pretty much nothing of value to pick.

Salary and contract status for 2025 from Her Hoop Stats as sourced by Richard Cohen:
https://herhoopstats.com/salary-cap-sheet/wnba/team/2024/seattle-storm-11eaecc7-3572-876c-b611-2362f5011b0b/

Hypothetical Protection Priority Order

1. Jewell Loyd ($249,032 guaranteed)
2. Skylar Diggins-Smith ($214,466 guaranteed)
3. Ezi Magbegor ($186,000 guaranteed)
4. Jordan Horston ($76,630, 3rd year rookie scale)
5. Nika Muhl ($68,595, 2nd year rookie scale)
6. Gabby Williams (unrestricted free agent)
7. Mackenzie Holmes (draft rights)
8. Mercedes Russell (unrestricted free agent)
9. Sami Whitcomb (unrestricted free agent)
10. Victoria Vivians (unrestricted free agent)
11. Joyner Holmes (unrestricted free agent)
Unprotectable: Nneka Ogwumike (unrestricted free agent who has reached core limit)

Locks for Protection

Jewell Loyd has been in Seattle for her whole career and is already set to make the maximum next year as well so she is an easy protection choice at the shooting guard spot.  Skylar Diggins-Smith was one of two key offseason signings and she played well at point guard and will also be protected as a large guaranteed salary.  Ezi Magbegor has emerged as a key defensive player at center while growing into her offensive role and will get a raise this season, but is another easy protection choice.  Jordan Horston continues to develop as either the fifth starter or a key forward coming off the bench and will be protected as she continues in her rookie contract.

Tough Team Decisions

Nika Muhl did not play much this season and then suffered an injury in her first game in Turkey, not only ending her season there, but also putting her availability in doubt for the next WNBA season.  The Storm will still likely protect her since she is still on her rookie contract and she can fight to be the backup point guard after recovering.  On the other side, the team picked Mackenzie Holmes late in the last draft knowing that she would miss the entire season after surgery, being willing to wait for her to compete for a backup center spot next season.  They could end up protecting her, although she is technically able to re-enter the draft in 2025, depending on how they feel the market would shape up for the next player we discuss.

Gabby Williams has played for Seattle for the last three seasons, but was only able to play the last two seasons due to unfortunate circumstances.  Since the Reno native also holds French citizenship, she was able to secure a lucrative contract in the league, which did not have a schedule compliant with the league’s prioritization rules and would have rendered her ineligible to sign in either year.  She was only able to play last year when a concussion ended her season in France before the WNBA deadline to finish an offseason playing obligation.  Another injury affected her this season and that recovery period and also the loss of her father led to her being a free agent at this year’s deadline.

In preparing to sign with Seattle for the end of season after playing for France at the Olympics, her camp continued to spread concern through the media that she wanted the team that she signed with to pledge that they would not apply the core designation to her for 2025.  It was not immediately obvious from previous play that it was a real concern, but she returned to the team and was productive as the starting small forward down the stretch.  While the team could obviously promise not to core her, the only way that any team could guarantee that she would not be cored by the Valkyries is to use a protection spot on her and there are at least enough available spots left for them to consider it.

Likely Left Unprotected

The team has four veterans who are unrestricted free agents, but are not in consideration to be a core player, meaning that there is no point in protecting them.  Sami Whitcomb broke into the league with Seattle and is there for the second time now, but she is approaching the end of her career playing as a backup guard.  Mercedes Russell has been a starting center for the team from time to time and they may be interested in keeping her as the primary backup.  Victoria Vivians was brought in at the minimum contract level to fight for the starting small forward spot, but ended up coming off the bench as the season continued.  Joyner Holmes was brought back after bouncing around the league, coming off the bench to shore up the power forward position.

Nneka Ogwumike was the other big free agent signing, but she only signed a one year contract.  She already had the core designation applied to her in Los Angeles twice so she can no longer receive one, leaving the team with no need to protect her regardless of whether she plans to return.  While they cannot pick her in this event, the Valkyries will certainly still be interested in signing the former Stanford star as a free agent when that period opens next year.

The Valkyries Perspective

The Valkyries just do not have much room for strategy when it comes to picking from Seattle as there are so few reasonable choices.  Assuming that the six that we listed first are protected, the obvious choice is picking Mackenzie Holmes and giving her the chance to show that she is healthy in training camp.  If the Storm leave Nika Muhl unprotected, she becomes the obvious choice even with the likelihood of her missing the season since she would still be on her rookie contract the following year.

If Gabby Williams is the player left unprotected, the team has to evaluate whether she is genuinely a core candidate and whether any other unrestricted free agent would be a better choice for that lone spot and then weigh that against her willingness to sit out if she is displeased with the designation being applied to her.  If the answer to one of those questions is that they should not select her, then the only choice left may be to select the rights to Tijana Krivacevic, who was picked near the end of the 2010 draft and has had a solid European career without really being in contention for a WNBA roster spot.  Even though she will almost certainly never join the team, there is value in retaining her rights to send out as a minimal asset in a trade where the Valkyries receive a salary dump. Seattle may also offer something in a trade to secure all seven players that they might want to be protected.