Golden State Valkyries Expansion Draft Speculation Series: Indiana Fever

After winning the last draft lottery, their second in a row, the Indiana Fever knew that the fortunes of the franchise were going to quickly change on and off the court. On the court, they returned to playoffs and have several building blocks for the team set. How the season unfolded for a number of players makes their protection priorities seem more obvious, with some differences from what would have been expected before the season. If those expected choices end up being made, the Valkyries will have a couple of paths to pursue.

Salary and contract status for 2025 from Her Hoop Stats as sourced by Richard Cohen:
https://herhoopstats.com/salary-cap-sheet/wnba/team/2024/indiana-fever-11eaecc7-3565-c004-b611-2362f5011b0b/

Hypothetical Protection Priority Order

1. Caitlin Clark ($78,066, 2nd year rookie scale)
2. Aliyah Boston ($83,371, 3rd year rookie scale)
3. Kelsey Mitchell (unrestricted free agent)
4. Lexie Hull ($88,261 guaranteed, 4th year rookie scale)
5. Damiris Dantas ($100,000 guaranteed)
6. Temi Fagbenle (restricted free agent)
7. NaLyssa Smith ($91,981 guaranteed, 4th year rookie scale)
8. Grace Berger ($79,999, 3rd year rookie scale)
9. Katie Lou Samuelson ($180,250 guaranteed)
10. Kristy Wallace ($80,823 guaranteed, 4th year rookie scale)
11. Victaria Saxton ($66,710, 3rd year rookie scale)
12. Erica Wheeler (unrestricted free agent)

Locks for Protection

There is certainly no question about the top of the protection list for this team with Caitlin Clark and Aliyah Boston still early in their careers and already showing what they can do in the league to solidify the point guard and center positions. Kelsey Mitchell is an unrestricted free agent who seems excited about the recruiting process, but the team likely plans to apply the core designation to her to keep their shooting guard. Lexie Hull solidified a spot in the starting lineup at the small forward spot over the course of the season and is an easy protection choice as she approaches the end of her rookie contract.

Tough Team Decisions

Damiris Dantas started the season injured, but she ended up providing what was expected when she was brought on board, providing offensive production as a backup post player for a guaranteed, but reasonable salary. Temi Fagbenle had been absent from the league for a number of years for a variety of reasons, but returned and provided the extra energy they needed in the post. She is a restricted free agent, but it seems worth holding those rights now and figuring out her next contract later.

There had been hopes that NaLyssa Smith be the third part of the young core by playing at power forward, but played herself out of minutes and finally the starting lineup by the end of the season. Given her stated discontentment with that decreasing role, now seems like the time for her to move on and hoping that the new team would take on the final year of her rookie contract would resolve that situation before trying to figure out a trade. Of course, her not being selected could create more issues for their offseason.

Likely Left Unprotected

After getting playing time as a backup guard in her rookie season, Grace Berger’s role decreased to being nearly completely out of the rotation this season and the team is not likely to protect her. The Fever had four of the places in the starting lineup looking pretty set heading into the season. Katie Lou Samuelson was expected to be the fifth starter, but never really found her rhythm after missing the previous season due to her pregnancy. With a significant raise on a guaranteed contract coming up, they can leave her unprotected and she would likely not be selected. Kristy Wallace also got chances in the starting lineup and then found herself out of the rotation so the team is also not likely to worry about leaving her available as she enters the last year of her rookie contract. Victaria Saxton ended up only playing in garbage time and as an emergency post player for the second straight season so she will also be left unprotected. Erica Wheeler is coming off of a large contract, but as she is only a backup point guard now, she is not going to be picked for a core designation by the Valkyries and can be brought back at a reduced salary next season with both sides already signaling interest.

The Valkyries Perspective

If the Fever are able to protect the six players at the top of our list, then the Valkyries will be left without obvious choices. NaLyssa Smith would be the most recently productive player, but the team will have to evaluate whether she is experiencing a dip right now and can be put back on the track that people were hoping for her to be on after her rookie season. If they are not convinced of that or they are concerned about flexibility, Grace Berger might be the more preferable option as the player under consideration whose contract is not guaranteed. She would then be able to compete in training camp for a roster spot and the team would be able to move on if it does not work out for her. The Fever might make some offers to try to get the Valkyries to commit to a particular pick, but are unlikely to include any significant asset to do so, leaving them as not the most interesting potential trade partner.