Golden State Valkyries Expansion Draft Speculation Series

Posted On September 17, 2024September 17, 2024

The regular season is almost over in the WNBA so player contract statuses for next season are about to be set. The Golden State Valkyries will get the chance to select their first set of players in the expansion draft during the offseason. The details have not been finalized, but based on history and logic, there is now some room for speculation about players who might be available, players whose teams will prioritize protecting, and directions that the Valkyries might go. As teams’ seasons end, we will be publishing an article on each of them that looks at their rosters from an expansion draft perspective.

Terminology

Based on how expansion drafts usually work, the existing teams generally have a limit of players that they can protect, which would prevent the expansion team from picking them. Everyone who could have been protected, but was not, is then available to be selected. For players under contract, that contract would be inherited as is by the new team. The WNBA has contracts that are guaranteed and contracts where the team can waive the player and not owe the remaining salary. The first three seasons of rookie scale contracts for drafted players are not guaranteed, but if the team picks up the option on the fourth year of that contract, it is guaranteed but does not count in the limit mentioned next. Teams can only have six guaranteed contracts on their roster, not counting those fourth year players.

There is also an expectation that some players who are not under contract with their team for next season will still be selectable and would also have to be considered for protection. Restricted free agents are those who have completed all years of their full rookie scale contract or have four years of service. As long as their team offers them a qualifying contract for the next season, the team can match any contract offer sheet that the player signs with another team during free agency and this ability would transfer over if they are picked in the expansion draft. Based on history, the Valkyries may be allowed to select one free agent who has not been cored twice to give them the core qualifying offer. This would mirror each team’s ability to retain one player who has not reached the core limit who would otherwise be free to sign with another team by giving them either the maximum salary or any negotiated lesser amount.

There are also non free agents who are not under contract for the next season that might be selectable. Players whose contracts have expired, but have not accrued enough service time to become free agents, are reserved, meaning that their team has exclusive negotiating rights with the player. If a player’s contract expires while that year of the contract is suspended, then the team also retains exclusive negotiating rights. Players who have been drafted, but have never signed a contract are not expected to be selectable so the team holding their rights would not need to protect them. Whatever roster the team ends up with at the end of the draft, the salary cap total must fall below 2025’s limit of $1,507,100.

Protection Strategy

Some teams will be able to protect pretty much every player who they want to retain, but there will also be teams that end up having more options than the limit of players who can be protected. They could simply make a priority list and keep going down it until they reach their limit, but they could also strategize and try to figure out which of the players that they are trying to keep that the Valkyries are unlikely to target, gambling that they will be able to safely retain that player along with their protected players.

Teams may leave their oldest players unprotected in case the Valkyries are planning for the long term and may also leave some players with pricier guaranteed deals unprotected anticipating that the Valkyries will want to retain flexibility. If restricted free agents can be picked, some teams may still leave some unprotected since the Valkyries might find it difficult to plan with them since their next contract is not determined yet. Similarly, if core-eligible unrestricted free agents can be picked, teams are still not going to worry about some of them being picked since that core offer would occupy 16.5% of the salary cap for one out of eleven or twelve players. On the other hand, team dynamics can also be at play and a team could protect a player whose selection is unlikely, trying to show that they value the player ahead of the next season.

Drafting Strategy

The exact number of players that can be drafted has not been determined yet, but the Valkyries are not simply going to pick the best players on the available list until they run out of picks. With the expansion draft happening before free agency, the team will still be looking to compete in that market, especially to add stars above the level of player available in the expansion draft. That means not taking on so many guaranteed post-rookie scale contracts that they get close to the limit of six protected veteran contracts and also not taking up all of the salary cap.

The team could look at some players not as building blocks for their first squad, but as players who other teams might trade for before or during that initial season. Depending on what kind of players must be protected in the final rules, the team may be looking to draft players who are not likely to actually play in the league in the upcoming season due to national team commitments or other reasons to potentially benefit in the future while preserving roster space immediately. Players with Reserved status will generally end up signing at the minimum salary so that provides even more value above not already being under contract.

Our Speculation Articles

Each current team will get their own article discussing who they might protect and who would then be left as a good option for the Valkyries to select. Under what rules are likely to be in play, some players who have already maxed out their time under the core designation and thus are completely unrestricted free agents and would have no reason to be protected, which will be noted. Since the number of protected players has not been announced yet, we will try to rank players in a possible priority list for who that team would protect. After that, realistic targets and possible strategy will be discussed for each team. Information about player status and contracts will be compiled with data on Her Hoop Stats sourced by Richard Cohen.