Expansion Draft Speculation Series Update

Posted On October 3, 2024October 3, 2024

Now that all the WNBA teams have official rules to work with for the expansion draft, we can update some of the speculation that we already started about the teams that missed the playoffs. Most of the announced rules were already taken into account in our first four articles, but we will add some of the recently drafted players whose teams still have their rights having not signed them to a contract. Trade rules have also been announced so we will discuss those possibilities as well. The original articles are linked below followed by our addendums.

Dallas Wings

Original article: https://valhalla.basketball/golden-state-valkyries-expansion-draft-speculation-series-dallas-wings/

Unsigned draftees being part of the process changes our outlook on the Dallas Wings after they used the 9th pick of the last draft on French point guard Carla Leite. Given that they used a relatively high pick on her, they may want to use a protection spot on her to avoid having her leave without ever trying to make the team. The rules also add Paige Robinson, the 31st pick last year, to the mix, but she is unlikely to figure in the process even as she continues to play well professionally in Germany as a scoring guard.

The most simple change would be to protect her and to leave either Teaira McCowan or Kalani Brown unprotected, depending on how much flexibility that they plan to have in the offseason under the assumption that the Valkyries will pick the center left unprotected. They could try something more aggressive and leave both of them unprotected knowing that only one can be picked, allowing them to keep the rights to Leite and then one from a group of players that include Jaelyn Brown and Awak Kuier. The Wings have a long history of making trades, although they no longer have a ton of future assets left in their hoard. Given that they may want to keep continuity with the remainder of their rotation, they could very well offer the Valkyries something to influence their choice.

Los Angeles Sparks

Original article: https://valhalla.basketball/golden-state-valkyries-expansion-draft-speculation-series-los-angeles-sparks/

The draft rights rule does add Australian combo guard Shaneice Swain, who was picked 14th in the 2023 draft, to the list of players that they have to make a decision on, but she will probably end up being left unprotected. The bigger news is that the Sparks parted ways with head coach Curt Miller, possibly changing their priorities. They extended multiple veterans during the season, which we took as a sign that they intended to protect them, but they could focus on keeping as many young players as possible instead and the Valkyries could be used to facilitate a multi-team trade involving one of their players. There are no obvious candidates for a trade just involving the Sparks, but they do have a lot of players for the last few spots and could make some proposals of their own to accomplish their goals.

Chicago Sky

Original article: https://valhalla.basketball/golden-state-valkyries-expansion-draft-speculation-series-chicago-sky/

There are not likely to be any changes in thinking after the rules announcement for the Sky, but the big news regarding them was the firing of head coach Teresa Weatherspoon. She did have strong relationships with at least several players, but that should not affect their protection decision. They remain likely to be deciding to protect two out of restricted free agent Michaela Onyenwere, Lindsay Allen, who has an unguaranteed contract, and Rachel Banham, who has a guaranteed contract. It is possible that they might try to offer a small asset to get the Valkyries to not pick who among that trio is left unprotected, but their relatively clean salary cap should not have them looking to dump a salary.

Washington Mystics

Original article: https://valhalla.basketball/golden-state-valkyries-expansion-draft-speculation-series-washington-mystics/

Two recent draftees can definitely be added to the list of players that the Mystics must account for, through neither is likely to be protected or picked. Shooting guard Txell Alarcon from Spain was picked 32nd in 2023 while versatile small forward Nastja Claessens from Belgium was picked 30th this year. The trade rules will certainly be of interest for the Mystics, who will have a tough decision on getting to six protected players and they may look to make a trade that would ensure that they have a little more control of what happens in the draft.

The main decision point will continue to be whether or not they use a protection spot on Elena Delle Donne. Now that the rules regarding unrestricted free agents and coring are known, she is probably the player most likely to offer max contract level production outside of the unrestricted free agents who are basically locks to be protected by their teams. It is still unclear if she plans to play again at all or whether she would only be willing to play for certain teams, which led to her sitting out the entire season in the first place. Given that the Mystics will want to protect other players, that lack of information could have them move on to other priorities, then putting the burden on the Valkyries to make back-channel inquiries about whether they should ignore her as an option and look elsewhere on the team.